David Seaton's News LinksI wrote about Pakistan recently. The drift of what I wrote is that Pakistan, not Iran, is where danger's real elite meet to eat.
Iran has a stable, if unattractive, "faith-based" leadership. Pakistan is little more than an army by all reliable accounts and they have the atomic bomb... and Osama lives there... Certainly it would be easier for Osama to lay his hands on a bomb in a Sunni country, which actually has several and where he lives than in a faraway Shiite country which doesn't have any. However since Pakistan doesn't pose any threat to Israel, they are a "partner in the war on terrorism".
Like everything else he touches Pakistan looks about to explode in Bush's face too. DS
2 comments:
Pakistan has been ruled by the army, or if you use Robert Fisks words 'the Army of the Indus' as instituted under the British Raj of India more than Jinnahs 'democracy' ever has. Jinnahs democracy though was always a veil. Musharaff is the first ever dictator of Pakistan to pull away that veil and suspend the constitution indefinitly. Dawn got its headline correct. 'A Second Coup!'
It makes sense. The army of the Indus was saddled with having to sit and watch while THEIR country was shattered into pieces, Jinnah may have had the best intentions, and the muslims may have been determined, but in the end, the Sikhs would not stop their agression, and the splitting of the Punjab became inevitable.
The 'Army of the Indus' became the Army of West Paksitan with the stroke of pen (when Lord Mountbatten made the worst decision in British history and gave in to Indian pressure) and with it came all the hinterland of India, all the poorest areas in a land that at the time was maybe the worlds poorest, and a racial/ethnic mix of hostile factions, Sindhis suddenly found themselves struggling to live alongside Muhajir immigrants, people living in destitution who now have to compete even to maintain a poverty standard of living with immigrants.
Not much has changed since. Pakistan is effectively governed by the regions who (if you read Paki papers) are largely autonomus, Pakistan is better described as a Federation rather than a nation
A model for Iraq?
Well given that al qeada act almost as a foreign policy tool for the ISI and we know damn well that Musharaff does not leave his house without their consent, then, perhaps we are seeing the future of Bush's model 'democracies'.
Basketcase regional governments, dictatorial central governments, whoes writs dont extend very far (I mean does anyone think that the people of Baluch care who is head of the army in Rawalpindi?).
Pakistan has somehow managed to remain a basket case, despite all the worlds efforts to focus on other areas, Pakistan is the main trade route for the Afghan drug lords (now in government) in Kabul. Worse still they have nukes and the missiles to deliver them, so our efforts cannot focus on upsetting them, one gets the feeling that New Dehli would get worried if you tried to bully any Pakistani leader too much....
This is not all Bush's fault though. I cant imagine that trying manage losing two wars, and prop up two illegal governments (any election in a country under foreign military occupation is not considered to be valid), as well as all those failing 'coloured' revolutions dotted round Russia, could be all that easy. He is responsible for them though and shoudl be put on trial for his crimes.
So should Musharaff for attacking his own people, Bhutto for her corruption, Maliki for his murders, Sadr for his murders, al qaeda for theirs, etc etc...
Pakistan has been ruled by the army, or if you use Robert Fisks words 'the Army of the Indus' as instituted under the British Raj of India more than Jinnahs 'democracy' ever has. Jinnahs democracy though was always a veil. Musharaff is the first ever dictator of Pakistan to pull away that veil and suspend the constitution indefinitly. Dawn got its headline correct. 'A Second Coup!'
It makes sense. The army of the Indus was saddled with having to sit and watch while THEIR country was shattered into pieces, Jinnah may have had the best intentions, and the muslims may have been determined, but in the end, the Sikhs would not stop their agression, and the splitting of the Punjab became inevitable.
The 'Army of the Indus' became the Army of West Paksitan with the stroke of pen (when Lord Mountbatten made the worst decision in British history and gave in to Indian pressure) and with it came all the hinterland of India, all the poorest areas in a land that at the time was maybe the worlds poorest, and a racial/ethnic mix of hostile factions, Sindhis suddenly found themselves struggling to live alongside Muhajir immigrants, people living in destitution who now have to compete even to maintain a poverty standard of living with immigrants.
Not much has changed since. Pakistan is effectively governed by the regions who (if you read Paki papers) are largely autonomus, Pakistan is better described as a Federation rather than a nation
A model for Iraq?
Well given that al qeada act almost as a foreign policy tool for the ISI and we know damn well that Musharaff does not leave his house without their consent, then, perhaps we are seeing the future of Bush's model 'democracies'.
Basketcase regional governments, dictatorial central governments, whoes writs dont extend very far (I mean does anyone think that the people of Baluch care who is head of the army in Rawalpindi?).
Pakistan has somehow managed to remain a basket case, despite all the worlds efforts to focus on other areas, Pakistan is the main trade route for the Afghan drug lords (now in government) in Kabul. Worse still they have nukes and the missiles to deliver them, so our efforts cannot focus on upsetting them, one gets the feeling that New Dehli would get worried if you tried to bully any Pakistani leader too much....
This is not all Bush's fault though. I cant imagine that trying manage losing two wars, and prop up two illegal governments (any election in a country under foreign military occupation is not considered to be valid), as well as all those failing 'coloured' revolutions dotted round Russia, could be all that easy. He is responsible for them though and shoudl be put on trial for his crimes.
So should Musharaff for attacking his own people, Bhutto for her corruption, Maliki for his murders, Sadr for his murders, al qaeda for theirs, etc etc...
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