Somalia: reopening the wound

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The slowly healing wounds of Somalia are being torn open again. Obviously Al Qaeda is the excuse for America's intervening anywhere it likes. What is the connection between Al Qaeda and Somalia? Like an opportunistic infection in a weakened organism, Al Qaeda merely takes the opportunity that failed states present. What makes states fail? Many think that globalization, where even major states lose much of their sovereign control, plays an important role in the total destruction of marginal state's authority. The "Islamic Courts" movement of Somalia was a totally homegrown solution to its endless anarchy, much or all of that anarchy brought on by longstanding foreign intervention. The center of the question is making Somalia habitable. The Courts created sufficient order for international aid agencies to function. If engaged and supported in their efforts to organize Somalia into some sort of livable, workable reality, would the Courts have jeopardized that aid by collaborating with Al Qaeda? Were they even given the chance to make that decision? DS
Analysis: Somalia May Fall Back to Chaos - AP
Abstract: Militiamen haunt Somalia's streets again, warlords have moved back into their mansions and the internationally backed government doesn't have the police or troops to maintain the peace. The call has gone out for an African cavalry to ride into town and save the day. But will it arrive in time? Diplomats from around the world are scrambling.(...) Jendayi Frazer, America's top diplomat for Africa, set out for the region to see what could be done to shore up the government.(...) she knew two simple truths about Somalia. First, the people badly need help. Almost one in four Somalis require outside assistance to survive and the Islamic militants who imposed security, while demanding piety, are gone. The warlords are ascendant and aid workers are afraid to go back in. Second, the United States can do little by itself. (...) American boots on the ground is not an option. "An African peacekeeping force is a good start to bring about stability," said Frazer, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for Africa. She took that message to the presidents of Somalia, Uganda, Djibouti and Yemen, as well as Ethiopia's prime minister and the African Union's deputy chairman.(...) Willpower, though, may not be enough. All of those countries already provide peacekeepers to operations around the world, and South Africa and Nigeria are especially spread thin at the moment. And no country will send peacekeepers into Somalia if there is fighting.(...) "I think it's important to talk to the Islamic courts, or whoever are the moderates within the group," Frazer said. "They did bring a certain degree of order to Mogadishu. They have experience."(...) Yemen has tried to broker numerous peace deals between dozens of factions in Somalia over the years. Over a seafood feast for Frazer on Saturday, Yemeni Foreign Minister Abubakr Al-Qirbi offered some advice. "We have many Somalis in Yemen and a long experience with them and there is one thing we have learned," he said. "If they have a fight, you don't get between them." READ IT ALL

Bush's African "strategery"

The CIA Factbook lists Ethiopia's religious makeup as " Muslim 45%-50%, Ethiopian Orthodox 35%-40%, animist 12%, other 3%-8%".

David Seaton's News Links

While waiting for Bush to unveil his new "strategery for victory" in Iraq , it's easy to take one's eyes off Somalia, but that would be a mistake. The Horn of Africa is one of Brent Scowcroft's major "choke points" for the flow of oil to America and its allies (clients, satellites, whatever). Ethiopia, which is one of the poorest countries in the world has invaded and is currently occupying Somalia. Let's have a closer look at the situation:

"The stability that emerged in southern Somalia after sixteen years of utter lawlessness is gone, the defeat of the ruling Islamic Courts Union now ushering in looting, martial law and the prospect of another major anti-Western insurgency.(...)the Bush Administration, undeterred by the horrors and setbacks in Iraq, Afghanistan and Lebanon, has opened another battlefront in this volatile quarter of the Muslim world. As with Iraq, it casts this illegal war as a way to curtail terrorism, but its real goal appears to be to obtain a direct foothold in a highly strategic area of the world through a client regime. The results could destabilize the whole region. The Horn of Africa, at whose core Somalia lies, is newly oil-rich. It is also just miles across the Red Sea from Saudi Arabia and Yemen, overlooking the daily passage of large numbers of oil tankers and warships through that waterway. The United States has a huge military base in neighboring Djibouti that is being enlarged substantially and will become the headquarters of a new US military command being created specifically for Africa.(...)The Ethiopian military presence in Somalia is inflammatory and will destabilize this region and threaten Kenya, a US ally and the only island of stability in this corner of Africa. Ethiopia is at even greater risk, as a dictatorship with little popular support and beset by two large internal revolts by Ogadenis and Oromos. It is also mired in a military stalemate with Eritrea, which has denied it secure access to seaports. It now seeks such access in Somalia." Salim Lone - The Nation

And, hey, the majority of Ethiopia's population is Muslim! If anyone reading this post is of draft age or is the parent of someone who is of draft age or going to turn 18 in the next 10 years, I suggest watching the Horn of Africa very closely. If the US continues any farther down this path, it will need thousands of infantrymen/women to patrol. Don't expect the Democrats to be much help either, most of this is "bipartisan"... Bush is just incredibly clumsy executing this stuff (that is actually his greatest virtue). Clinton was a political magician like David Copperfield, but Bush is like some magician at a children's party: rented tux, cards falling out of his sleeves, who reaches into his top hat and comes up with a handful of rabbit shit. Don't knock it, this how us kiddies finally learn how to spot the tricks. DS

Invading Somalia is no recipe for stability - Editorial - Financial Times
Abstract: (...) If the Ethiopians stay they risk uniting much of Somalia against them. If they go, as they say they soon will, they will leave a political vacuum, with Somalia's well-armed clans scrabbling over the carcass of the country. Eventually, it will almost certainly be the more disciplined but now radicalised Islamists that end up holding the ring. We are, in short, looking at yet another geopolitical disaster, which could spread fighting across the Horn of Africa, a region at the crossroads of the Middle East and Africa that is already blighted by floods and drought, famine and desertification, with a long history of conflict. To the north, Ethiopia's arch-rival, Eritrea, is already sending arms to the Islamists, while, to the south, the fighting has reached the borders of north-east Kenya. Admittedly, Somalia has presented peculiar difficulties since it imploded as a state 15 years ago. Its people emerged shattered from colonialism. Although among the most homogeneous in Africa, with the same language and Muslim religion and largely from the same ethnic group, they have built their identities around six rival clans and tributaries of feuding sub-clans. One can see moreover, why Somalia presses so many American buttons. As a failed state in transition from warlords' rule to an Islamist emirate, it resembles Afghanistan. The humiliation of the failed US intervention in Mogadishu in 1993 - the Black Hawk Down episode - ranks with the headlong retreat of US marines from Beirut a decade earlier. A quick, ostensible victory must also have looked very tempting for a Bush administration responsible for the debacle in Iraq. Washington claims the Union of Islamic Courts is allied to al-Qaeda. That looks as doubtful as the recent record of US intelligence. Certainly, the Islamist alliance has its extremists. Their influence and audience is now set to grow exponentially. And Somalia could indeed become a new magnet for and incubator of jihadi terrorism - just as Iraq did after the US invasion. This invasion is not the answer to Somalia's problems. Whatever the intentions of Addis Ababa and the increasingly assertive government of Meles Zenawi, the Ethiopian leader, his country is too poor and, with very long borders, too porous to stay in Somalia. The transitional government, by itself, lacks all credibility. It was created in Nairobi and confined, until last month's invasion, to Baidoa, close to Ethiopia's border. It never asserted its authority; its prime minister, Ali Mohammed Gedi, does not even command the support of his sub-clan. The Islamist alliance was able to restore order in Mogadishu and even open the ports. Its methods are brutal but Sharia law is widely accepted and, in current conditions, welcomed in Somalia. The Islamists, moreover, are not going away. Their retreat looks like the tactical prelude to guerrilla war. READ IT ALL

Somalia: in a hole and digging faster

David Seaton's News Links

If you thought Bush was going to "go quietly" you are in for another think. Perhaps Bush's only chance to avoid his own personal humiliation is to widen and deepen the crisis. He is looking at a level of failure, exposure to ridicule and universal repudiation that few human beings will ever have to face. Although he makes much of his Christianity he doesn't seem to cultivate the Christian virtues of meekness, humility, repentance and truthfulness. The failure of conspicuously Christian, Jimmy Carter's presidency is nothing beside Bush's and if I can't imagine Bush resigning himself to a lifetime of redemption through good works... is this a failure of my imagination? So be prepared for universal collapse, catastrophe and war. Bush is his own little apocalypse. DS

In Somalia, a reckless U.S. proxy war - International Herald Tribune
Abstract: Undeterred by the horrors and setbacks in Iraq, Afghanistan and Lebanon, the Bush administration has opened another battlefront in the Muslim world. With full U.S. backing and military training, at least 15,000 Ethiopian troops have entered Somalia in an illegal war of aggression against the Union of Islamic Courts, which controls almost the entire south of the country. As with Iraq in 2003, the United States has cast this as a war to curtail terrorism, but its real goal is to obtain a direct foothold in a highly strategic region by establishing a client regime there. The Horn of Africa is newly oil-rich, and lies just miles from Saudi Arabia, overlooking the daily passage of large numbers of oil tankers and warships through the Red Sea. General John Abizaid, the current U.S. military chief of the Iraq war, was in Ethiopia this month, and President Hu Jintao of China visited Kenya, Sudan and Ethiopia earlier this year to pursue oil and trade agreements. The U.S. instigation of war between Ethiopia and Somalia, two of world's poorest countries already struggling with massive humanitarian disasters, is reckless in the extreme. Unlike in the run-up to Iraq, independent experts, including from the European Union, were united in warning that this war could destabilize the whole region even if America succeeds in its goal of toppling the Islamic Courts. An insurgency by Somalis, millions of whom live in Kenya and Ethiopia, will surely ensue, and attract thousands of new anti-U.S. militants and terrorists. READ IT ALL