Bonjour tristesse

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The first big question about Sarkozy's victory for all of us who aren't French or don't live in France has to be: is it contagious? Because, don't kid yourselves, Sarkozy has taken us a giant step down the road to making racism respectable. He has dressed Le Penism in the clothes of Horatio Alger... to deafening applause.

Personally I can't get beyond the "Karcher" remark. The question for me is if Sarkozy is really just a socially acceptable code word for Le Pen. I wonder if Josephine Baker (the beautiful lady in the collage above) would still feel comfortable in Sarkozy's Paris, or Richard Wright, or James Baldwin, or Sydney Bechet? Or moving away from African Americans for a moment, would Ernest Hemingway and F. Scott Fitzgerald still waste any time on France. Something very important has been lost for all of us.

Predictions?

Sarkozy is a total opportunist and aside from his hunger for power there is probably no fixed point for him, however, to get where he is he has made rather a devilish pact with two contradicting forces. On one hand the super rich and their "bobo" wannabes who are looking for a lowering of taxes and the cutting of entitlements and lots of immigrants to clean their houses and care for their children and on the other hand the Le Pen voters, many of them hardscrabble proletarians who once voted Communist. These are people who depend on the welfare state as much as any beure. They will resist any flexibilization of the labor market or any other loss of their entitlements. (Remember that Hitler called his movement "National Socialism", not "National Free for All Capitalism).

What Sarkozy is attempting isn't that original, it is a French version of Nixon's "Southern Strategy". Southern poor whites had voted Democratic since the civil war. They were called the "Solid South" and were prime receivers of the New Deal's largesse. When the Democrats supported the civil rights movement, Nixon (the American Sarkozy? Le Pen the French George Wallace?) was quick to discover that southern poor whites hated black people more than they loved themselves or even their own children. Being offered "states rights" (code word for legal racism) they voted Republican, thus denying themselves and their descendants health insurance, good public education etc.

I really doubt that Sarkozy could pull anything like that off. Southern poor whites have this crazy, "Apocolypse Now" (John of Patmos not Coppola) streak that makes them so treasured by lovers of the grotesque like Tennesee Williams, Flannery O ' Conner or John Kennedy Toole. Just trying to imagine your average pisse vinaigre French workman in a frothy "born again" hysteria is a real knee slapper. To imagine that Frenchman (or his wife... especially his wife) voting against his pocketbook is impossible.

Sarkozy might be able to keep all the balls in the air for a while if the world economy doesn't falter in the slightest, but there are lots of red flags and flashing lights from experts warning of a probable downturn. In that case it will be impossible to hold such a coalition together. The Bobos and the Po' Whites will part ways. Sparks will fly.

The caveats in this leading editorial from the FT below are interesting. "Now he must put populism behind him" says the FT. Is that possible? The "Anglo-Saxon" press has tended to see Sarkozy as a reforming liberal, eager to Thatcherize France. But Sarkozy has taken the votes of Le Pen and these could prove a very heavy burden. Let us see how long the honeymoon lasts. DS

Sarkozy wins a mandate for change - Editorial - Financial Times
Abstract: The most disturbing aspect of Mr Sarkozy's campaign was his readiness to play on populist fears of excessive immigration and of unfair competition from globalisation in his drive to win voters from his right as well as his left. His attacks on the European Central Bank were ill-judged, in laying the blame for France's sluggish economic performance on outside forces, not excessive rigidity at home. Now he must put populism behind him. Immigration controls are not the answer to a failure of integration policies that has led to miserable ghettos in the suburbs. Improving education, creating more jobs and easing labour market flexibility will have far more positive effects. Hiding behind protectionist trade barriers and defending inefficient national champions are not the ways to make France more competitive. Reducing red tape and bureaucracy will do far more good. READ IT ALL

Sarko is France's answer to Sammy Glick

"La vengeance est un plat qui se mange froid"
Les Liaisons Dangereuses (1782)- Pierre Choderlos de Laclos.

David Seaton's News Links
My theory of the French elections, which contains nothing original, is that the whole thing revolves around the personality of Nicolas Sarkozy.

Sarkozy is the French incarnation of "Sammy Glick" the hero of Budd Schulberg's classic "What Makes Sammy Run?", eaten by ambition, without any known scruples, someone who has left scores of 'dead bodies' and walking wounded behind him in his climb to the top. In short, France is full of the enemies of Nicolas Sarkozy. This is their big chance.

Now, in the second round of the presidential elections, these enemies, perhaps even Sarkozy's wife, will come crawling out of the very woodwork. These two week are the culmination of his entire existence. His heart's desire is within his grasp. This is the cruelest moment for his enemies to strike. They will show no mercy. I have no trouble predicting that the next two weeks will probably be the worst of Sarkozy's life.

When you read this story from the Financial Times about Sarkozy's attempts to draw François Bayrou into a conspiracy against Jacques Chirac as far back as 2002, you will be struck by the timing of Bayrou's revelation. He didn't use it when it could have given him votes. He has waited till now, when the damage to Sarkozy will be the greatest. His goal is to destroy Sarkozy and inherit the French right. Indeed, revenge is "a dish best served cold". DS

Sarkozy sought Bayrou’s help to attack Chirac - Financial Times

Abstract: France’s presidential election took another twist on Wednesday with the revelation that François Bayrou, the self-styled kingmaker of the contest, rebuffed an invite from Nicolas Sarkozy to join forces in “a war” against president Jacques Chirac three years ago. Mr Bayrou, the centrist who came third in Sunday’s first round, on Wednesday refused to endorse either of the two remaining contenders for the presidency. He has been wooed by Mr Sarkozy, the favourite, and Ségolène Royal, the Socialist, who both need his 6.8m first-round votes for victory. The surprise revelation that Mr Bayrou fell out with Mr Sarkozy over his abortive anti-Chirac proposal in 2004 may complicate attempts by the presidential frontrunner to coax his centrist rival into supporting his candidacy in return for an electoral alliance. The website of the local newspaper Sud-Ouest unveiled the scoop on Wednesday, after keeping it under wraps at Mr Bayrou’s request since interviewing him with its readers on March 16. It said it decided to publish his comments to “clarify the gulf that separates the two men”. In the interview, extracts of which are being broadcast on Sud-Ouest’s website, Mr Bayrou said: “You cannot meet more different (people) than Nicolas Sarkozy and me. I have not spoken with Nicolas Sarkozy for three years.” Mr Bayrou recounted how a journalist and friend invited him to a meeting with Mr Sarkozy, shortly after the latter had become head of the centre-right UMP party, founded by Mr Chirac in 2002. Mr Bayrou said that at the meeting: “Sarkozy said to me: ‘I propose an alliance against Chirac. We’ll act the young ones and make him look old-fashioned, the old man. We’ll fight a war with him.’” The centrist said he replied: “That doesn’t interest me. I don’t want to form an alliance with you. I don’t want to form an alliance against Chirac on the criteria of age. That is not like me. So, you do what you like, but me, I won’t do it.” He added: “Since then its been like a chill between us.” The revelation confirms rumours that Mr Sarkozy actively tried to destabilise Mr Chirac, his former mentor, even though he served as interior minister and finance minister in his government for most of his final five-year mandate.(...) Mr Bayrou ran a surprisingly successful campaign as an alternative to the discredited two-party system. He criticised both leading candidates, but was especially hostile towards Mr Sarkozy. READ IT ALL

Ségolène and "la mesure"

David Seaton's News Links
In trying to handicap the French presidential race I think we have to ask ourselves, why 18% of the voters cast their ballot for a moderate-conservative horse breeder like François Bayrou in the first place?

I would suggest that this was a deeply anti-"Sarkozy the man" vote, as the program differences between the two conservatives wouldn't justify it. The question is Sarkozy himself. His character, his personality.

Those who voted for him voted for that character and personality. I think everybody that really likes him has had a chance to vote for him already... That is all there is. I don't think we'll see a great mass of Bayrou's supporters rushing to vote for Sarkozy... they simply couldn't vote for a Socialist in the first round. Now comes the gathering together of those who fear Sarko and detest him. If Sarkozy tries to move toward the center the Le Pen vote probably will abstain and the moderates won't be convinced.

Remember when our beloved leader George W. Bush said that the problem of the French was that they didn't have a word for "entrepreneur"... He might have added that they don't have a word for "bourgeois" either. The French have, in fact, invented the universal word for "middle class" and they are famous for being the world's most bourgeois people. At the center of their values is "la mesure"... just the right amount of anything, not too much, not too little... balance. My feeling is that although Sarkozy is exciting he is too hot, too often angry. Not quite in control... not even at home. Madame Sarkozy is often quite openly seen to indulge in, to use a down home turn of phrase, "a slippin' and a slidin"... The French don't care much about what people do in bed, but they admire discretion, control... mesure.

Ségolène Royal, although without the benefit of clergy, has had four children with the same man and both of them have careers in the same organization without any tension or jealousy being evident... How balanced, reliable and steady can you get?

Like this article from the Financial Times suggests, I think the election will be a referendum about Sarkozy's character and I think that he will fail the test. I wouldn't be surprised if his wife, now that he is safely into the second round, chose this precise moment to humiliate him. Hell hath no fury... DS

Battleground moves to the centre - Financial Times
Abstract: The trauma of April 2002 weighed heavily on Sunday’s elections. Left wing voters were determined not to repeat the mistake of the last ballot when they spread their support among several candidates allowing Jean-Marie Le Pen, the leader of the far-right National Front, to sneak through to the second round. This time, the Socialist Party appealed for a ’vote utile’ (a useful vote) in the first round. They won it.(...) Support for the candidates of the extreme left fell sharply compared with 2002 as the left rallied around Ségolène Royal in spite of widespread misgivings about her campaign.(...) The question on everyone’s lips this morning is: can Ms Royal win? It is possible, but it will be difficult. A snap poll from Ipsos on Sunday night showed Nicolas Sarkozy would win the second round by a handy margin of 54 per cent to 46 per cent. However, five of the 10 defeated candidates immediately rallied behind Royal to form an anti-Sarkozy front; the others refrained from endorsing anyone. Ms Royal has shown that she is a remarkably resilient campaigner. Her opponents have underestimated her at their peril. She may also find it easier than Mr Sarkozy to move towards the middle, the battleground of the second round. As a woman of the left, with values of the right, she may make a better “cross-over” candidate. As Jacques Séguéla, the veteran advertising guru, once put it in an interview with the FT, there is a lot of Sarko in Sego, but not a lot of Sego in Sarko. It will be critical how the voters of François Bayrou, the third-placed centrist candidate, now divide. But it would be a mistake to believe that he has a single transferable block of votes at his command. Earlier opinion polls have suggested his vote could split equally between Ms Royal and Mr Sarkozy.(...) The vote on May 6 could well turn out to be a referendum on Mr Sarkozy. It is his election to lose; but the headstrong Mr Sarkozy is certainly capable of a rush of blood to the head that could cost him victory. READ IT ALL

Segolene and reading polls

David Seaton's News Links
I'm just including this fascinating snippet from the Guardian on the first round of the French presidential election for the record. On Monday we'll see if the defacing of posters or the university poll had given us a winner which the normal polls found impossible.

These offbeat things can often be uncannily accurate. Take, for example, the "Halloween mask poll", which always shows who is going to win US presidential elections. It appears that the candidate that sells the most masks for trick or treating is always elected.

The Halloween mask poll had Bush getting re-elected as early as September 2004. So if these French versions pick the winner we can continues this thread on Monday. DS

Floating voters the key as campaigning closes in France - Guardian
Abstract: Mr Sarkozy's election team is said to have been rattled by hints that his campaign posters were being destroyed more than those of other candidates - and worse, defaced with Hitler mustaches. Concerns about the reliability of polling figures were heightened last night when a survey at the respected Paris Institute for Political Studies predicted a first-round victory for Ms Royal. The 1,000 students who took part in the mock vote gave her 39.8 %, Mr Bayrou 26.6 %, Mr Sarkozy 18.7 % and Mr Le Pen 4.8 %. A college spokesman, Hervé Marro, denied that those at the university, a hothouse for many of France's future leaders, were traditionally leftwing. "Not at all. There are a lot of students at Sciences Po who normally support the right, which is why the result was such a surprise," he told the Guardian. "Additionally, a lot of the left-leaning students are not those who support Ségolène Royal." He added: "The big problem with all polls is that saying you are going to vote for a candidate and actually doing so are two very different things." READ IT ALL

Homes for the Homeless: Vive la France!

David Seaton's News Links

Political action is possible, things can be changed, activists can make a difference... In short another world is possible... at least in Scotland and France. DS
France adopts Scottish policy of legal right to housing - Financial Times
Abstract: The law would allow homeless people to sue public authorities and force them to provide accommodation. It follows an assertive campaign by homeless associations that has pushed a growing public concern up the political agenda four months before France’s presidential elections. France’s interest in Scottish housing policies has surprised some campaigners who, in spite of long-standing close Franco-Scottish relations, are more accustomed to seeing the UK as a bastion of heartless capitalism. In a nod to this apparent paradox, Mr de Villepin said: “For our Anglo-Saxon friends, this is proof of France’s pragmatism, drawing on what works best elsewhere, while taking account of France’s specific needs.” He said action would be taken to reduce the shortfall of 600,000 social dwellings. Campaigners claim the real figure is closer to 1m. Jacques Chirac, France’s president, promised a right to housing in his new year’s speech last weekend, winning some praise but raising questions over why he waited until his twelfth year as president to take action. Concern for the homeless is a recurring theme in France’s media whenever temperatures drop over Christmas. But this year the issue has attracted more attention because of daring publicity tactics by campaigners. Homeless people in central Paris were given khaki tents last year, making them more visible. Since then, hundreds more tents, pink this time, have been set up for the homeless and their middle class sympathisers beside the Canal St Martin in a fashionable area of the French capital. Similar tents have also sprung up in Nice, Lyons and Toulouse. The latest coup was last week’s “requisitioning” of a vacant bank branch by campaign groups to house 80 people. The six-floor building, owned by mutual bank CIC, has been dubbed the “ministry for the housing crisis” by its squatters. This lobbying has forced presidential candidates – including Nicolas Sarkozy on the right and Ségolène Royal on the left – to take a stance on the homeless. Media attention has added to the impression that social issues, such as crime, immigration and the cost of living, are dominating the election campaign. Mr Sarkozy, the campaign’s only self-proclaimed economic liberal, has been peppering recent speeches with more socially conscious policy ideas. At his latest rally he promised to house anyone who did not want to be homeless within two years. By shifting to the centre-ground Mr Sarkozy seems to be reacting to the meteoric rise of Ms Royal as the Socialist party candidate. Ms Royal has made the fight against poverty the centrepiece of her campaign. “That poverty still exists in a country like ours, this is the real scandal,” she recently told the Journal du Dimanche. READ IT ALL

Snubbing Segolene - Newslinks Hillary Watch

David Seaton's News Links

If you are trying to locate Hillary Clinton on the political map, this news may help. In Europe Segolene Royal is considered center-left and there are those who fear she may be another Tony Blair, (center-right posing as center-left). But Segolene is too hot for Hillary. Stay tuned. DS
Clinton and Royal - Sharing ambitions not handshakes? - Reuters
Abstract: One is French. One is American. Both may become the first female presidents of their country. But will Segolene Royal and Hillary Rodham Clinton support or snub each other in their battle? Speculation about the power women's relationship rose in France after a newspaper said Royal had postponed a U.S. trip planned for this month because Clinton did not want to see her. Socialist regional leader Royal, 53, a relative political newcomer with little foreign policy experience, has made little secret of the fact she would like to meet Clinton to bolster her international credentials. But after gaffes by Royal on a trip to the Middle East, the Democratic Senator from New York, who is believed to be eyeing a White House bid in 2008, was less than enthusiastic about being seen together with the French candidate, Le Parisien daily said at the weekend, quoting a Clinton adviser. "Hillary, whose candidature is far from assured, is very vigilant and cannot afford the slightest false move," it quoted the adviser as saying. "She does not want to be associated with Royal's recent comments. It wouldn't be good for her image." A spokesman for Royal said her trip, which was announced last month, had been postponed for scheduling reasons, declining to give further details. Philippe Reines, a spokesman for Clinton, said in Washington that: "There was never a meeting planned or scheduled." READ IT ALL

Segolene and "the Lobby"

David Seaton's News Links

For an American politician Segolene Royal's treatment of France's powerful Jewish lobby must seem like science fiction. In fact it is very simple. Imagine if say, the entire African-American community in the United States were militantly pro-Palestinian and decided their vote mainly on that issue. How would a Democratic politician play that? Lose media support and financing or lose a solid 18% of the popular vote on an issue that is not decisive for the rest of the electorate? The price of elitist politics is that when issues become so simple and self-evident that "you don't need a weatherman to tell which way the wind blows," then the media's "gate-keeper" function ceases to exist and numerically small, but powerful groups being able to control the behavior of the elites no longer guarantees their achieving desired outcomes. DS

A snub from Segolene Royal - Haaretz
Abstract: It was a very embarrassing moment. The scene: the lobby of the King David Hotel in Jerusalem. The players: Segolene Royal's spokesman Julian Dray and a representative of CRIF, the umbrella organization of the Jewish community in France. "I have nothing to talk to you about!" said Dray heatedly to the astonished Jewish representative. "You have sold your soul to the other side; you have nothing to look for with us. Go back to your friend Nicolas Sarkozy; he's your landlord." The CRIF representative tried with all his might to convince Dray that his organization is taking an absolutely objective position with regard to the presidential race in France. But Dray stuck to his guns. "You are going to pay dearly for your one-sided mustering," he went on to shout. "Segolene will be president, and you will have to pray for her to receive you for a discussion."(...) It is an open secret that the Jews as an organized body have sworn allegiance to the candidate of the right, Sarkozy. At every opportunity, he meets with them and consults with them. At every opportunity they evince enthusiasm for him that is intended to convey the impression they are supporting him in his race for the presidency. This is the reason Royal did not accept an invitation to meet with the heads of the organization in recent months. This is also the reason she ignored their existence when she decided at the last minute to pop over to Israel and the reason the party spokesman related to the representative of the organization as though he were a leper.(...) recently they have been attacked by an acute desire to resemble the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). For years, the American lobby has been standing up as a defensive wall behind the hawkish views in Israel. The heads of the right have been greeted as heroes at its conferences, whereas the heads of the left have pleaded in vain for similar treatment. The heads of CRIF took a step and learned it came with a price. "It has never yet happened to us that we have not had a connection with any key person in a candidate's headquarters," admitted a senior figure in the organization.(...) It is no wonder, then, that the first to make accusations against Royal in the wake of her visit to Israel have been the heads of CRIF.(...) When the alliance between the Jews and the presidential candidate of the right becomes a consolidated fact, the voters from Muslim backgrounds will flock to the Socialist candidate to serve as a counterweight to the Jews. To the extent that the Jews will expect a return for their support of Sarkozy, the Muslims will expect a similar return for their support of Royal. If this happens, the distance between the two communities, which are embroiled in any case, is liable to grow even larger. READ IT ALL

Exploding grannies and Segolene Royal

David Seaton's News Links

Ségolène Royal is running for president of France, she is a very smart lady who knows how to read polls and to gauge public opinion. She may not be a big expert on the Middle East, but she has French public opinion cold. Haaretz put the photo of Royal above as an illustration of an article, entitled, "Islamic Jihad threatens to attack Israel 'in the coming hours'. That is a message. France has the largest Muslim population in western Europe, estimated at 5 million, it also has the largest Jewish minority of any country of the diaspora after the United States, a community which is very assimilated and influential. Ségolène knows what is waiting for her and she is willing to pay the price. As to the article below from The Observer, the way you interpret it may have a lot to do with your age. No matter what your politics, if you are combing gray hair, it will touch you. DS
Abstract from The Observer: In the centre of Beit Hanoun, there is nothing left of the 800-year-old mosque but the minaret. It looks like a lighthouse stranded in a sea of rubble. People whose homes were demolished during the latest Israeli army incursion sit on plastic chairs around bonfires. At night they bunk down with the neighbours. One of them is Watfa Kafarna. 'I saw the Israeli soldiers eye-to-eye,' she said. 'They took my four-year-old grandson, Mahadi, who has Down's syndrome. They shook him and yelled: "Where are the guns?" Now he is traumatised and wets the bed every night.'(...) Not his own bed - the Kafarna family is homeless, living off the charity of friends. Tears run from Watfa's eyes as she looks at her son, daughter-in-law and grandchild huddled around a brazier. Her husband, Diab, shuffles across the ruins towards his wife. 'Bossa!' he says, 'A kiss!' In a highly unconventional move, Diab kisses his wife on the mouth. 'She is my heart, my eyes, my light. We have lost our house but not each other.' During the incursion, Israeli soldiers detained all men aged 16-40, including Watfa and Diab's sons and grandsons. The army targeted the mosque, attempting to arrest militants hiding there. The women put up their own resistance, gathering as human shields around the mosque to help the militants escape. 'I am 72, says Watfa, 'but by doing this I felt 20, young and useful and ready to act.'(...) Two women were killed by the Israeli Defence Force that day. Watfa was bruised, as was 70-year-old Fatma Najar, hit by a bulldozer. Three weeks later, Najar blew herself up near Israeli soldiers, wounding two. In Gaza she is seen as a heroine. 'If the Israelis came to my house to gun down my children and I had a belt, I would do the same,' says Watfa. 'The woman is the biggest loser here,' says Khola, a neighbour, standing on the remains of a kitchen where flour is mixed with pulverised masonry. Two hundred homes were destroyed in Beit Hanoun. 'Fatma Najar, an old woman, did what many people don't have the guts to do. If you go back and research Fatma,' says Khola, 'you will see her home was destroyed on top of her head, her sons jailed, her grandson killed.' 'We want to believe in peace, but how can we when the warplanes still fly over our heads every night,' asks Watfa, 'making our grandchildren cry and wet themselves? When there are still tank movements on the border? I can't believe there will be peace.' Najar's family heard of her attack on the radio. 'We thought it must be another Fatma Najar,' said her son, Jihad, 35. 'It never occurred to us it could have been my mother. Then the crowds started to arrive and we knew it was true. We had mixed feelings, sadness at her irreplaceable loss. But pride too.' There is a huge shaheed - 'martyr' - poster of Najar on her house. It is shocking to see an old woman carrying an M16. Some of her 70 grandchildren and great-grandchildren play beneath the picture. Israa, six, wears a pink top with 'Happy Childhood' embroidered on it. 'My grandmother's gone to heaven. Because she shot the Israelis,' she says.(...) 'I think the final straw was the Beit Hanoun massacre [a family of 17 killed at dawn when Israeli shells hit their house]. Mother went to the family's home and asked the women: "Why leave it to your sons to die? If Allah allows, I will become a martyr." They said: "You think they will take an old lady like you?"' A fortnight later she was a suicide bomber, injuring two Israelis, decapitating herself.(...) It was only after her death, her family discovered she had been working for Hamas: 'They told us she had carried food, water, ammunition to the resistance at the front line. We had no idea.' The night before her suicide operation, Najar went to visit all of her children and grandchildren. She brought clothes and sweets. 'But she was always so good to us,' says Inam. 'As she left me for the last time, she looked back in a way that made me wonder, but then she was gone.'(...)'I know at least 20 of us who want to put on the belt,' said Fatma Naouk, 65. 'Now is the time of the women. Now the old women have found a use for themselves.' READ IT ALL