Russia: things we did that we ought not to have done

David Seaton's News Links

Alongside the Iraq debacle, America's greatest strategic error since WWII has been its handling of the collapse of the Soviet Union and its naked exploitation of Russia's weakness in the 1990s, which Russians view (correctly, in my opinion) as kicking them when they were down.

Ironically at the same time that the US and its allies were doing everything they could to create a revanchist minded Russia, Europe became dependent on Russian energy. That is the basic contradiction and all the talk about "shared values" is so much narcissistic claptrap. Russia is suddenly a major power again and perhaps it is a greater power now than before because during the cold war Russia was not integrated into our system and the west had not come to depend on its infinite resources.

Suddenly Poland, the Baltic republics and the Ukraine are so many millstones around the European Union's neck. There is a very good chance that NATO will founder on this question as nobody in their right mind is going to go to war with Russia to defend Estonia and even the tensions within the European Union may become unbearable as German business's frustration grows at the obstacles that Poland continuously throws up to Germany's natural synergies with Russia. DS

Engaging an angry bear - The Boston Globe
Abstract: Russians believe they have nothing to show for years of pro-U.S. policy, and instead have been rewarded with a policy of "neo-containment." Moscow sees the United States setting up ballistic missile defense interceptors and military bases on its borders, fomenting revolutions in neighboring states and supporting construction of oil and gas pipelines that circumvent Russia. Moscow views the status quo as enshrining its post-Cold War weakness, and the Kremlin is dead set on breaking out of that arrangement. Russia will likely seek to renegotiate arms control agreements and political arrangements that date from its time of troubles, the 1990s. The days of Moscow as Washington's junior partner are over. Doing business with this Russia won't be easy. But giving up on U.S.-Russian relations, a current predisposition among many elites in both capitals, won't serve either's interest. The world's leading power needs better ties with a Russia that is the leading producer of oil and gas, possesses thousands of nuclear warheads, is a key player in major crises (such as Iran) and - like it or not - will retain significant influence in its energy-rich(...) neighborhood.(...) the United States needs to fundamentally alter its conception of Russia. Moscow is resurgent on key diplomatic issues and Russian business is now influential across the globe. Washington should view Russia as a major nonaligned power - more like China or India than a poor second-tier disciple. READ IT ALL

Russia, Iran and gas: pure Python

David Seaton's News Links
George Bush is beginning to look and sound more and more like a character out of a Monty Python sketch... Which one? Take your pick.

The principal Python ingredient is people talking total rubbish in dead earnest... Oblivious to reality... Like the scene in "The Meaning of Life", where two suburban couples entertain the "Grim Reaper" at home...(Hint: It was the Mayonnaise.)

Here Bush is threatening military action against Iran, while Russia and Iran are about to corner the market of natural gas. This will have little effect on residents of the USA, which has its own supplies, but will split off most of America's allies, read: Europe, Japan, India etc, who are totally dependent on imported natural gas. Without firing a shot it weakens America's most important strategic alliances. It's like taking candy from a baby, really. DS

Russia and Iran Discuss A Cartel For Natural Gas - Wall Street Journal

Abstract: Russia and Iran -- which hold nearly half the world's natural-gas reserves -- are talking about creating an OPEC-like organization for gas, a move that has the potential to unsettle energy markets and redraw geopolitical alignments. Gas accounts for a growing share of global energy use, but the nations that produce most of it don't work together to influence markets. That's a stark contrast to the oil market, in which members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries manage output to keep prices at levels they favor. During his annual news conference in the Kremlin yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said "a gas OPEC is an interesting idea. We will think about it."(...) The prospect of Russia and Iran working together to influence markets can't be comforting for Western countries. While Russia doesn't have the same pariah status as Iran, Moscow has under Mr. Putin faced increasing criticism for using its vast energy riches as a diplomatic lever. Early last year, state-controlled gas giant OAO Gazprom cut off supplies of natural gas to neighboring Ukraine in a pricing dispute that briefly reduced the volumes delivered further down the pipeline in Europe. Together Russia and Iran hold more than 40% of the world's known gas reserves, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Moscow has cultivated relations with Tehran in recent years, building a nuclear-power plant in Iran and last year selling it air-defense missiles. Moscow has also resisted efforts to increase international pressure on Iran over concerns about Tehran's nuclear ambitions. (...) Mr. Putin has been working to strengthen Moscow's ties with other major gas producers. After he visited Algeria last year, Gazprom last month reached a series of cooperation agreements with Algeria's Sonatrach, Europe's No. 3 supplier. European Union Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs called for an explanation from Algeria and Russia, since they could use their 35% share of the European market to potentially fix prices. Next week, Mr. Putin travels to the Persian Gulf on a trip that will include the first-ever visit by a Russian leader to Qatar, which controls the world's third-largest gas reserves.
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