Islam and the new technologies

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For me nothing is more fascinating than to see how Islam, a religion usually associated with traditional societies, has been empowered and propelled into action more than any other ideology by the new technologies.

I think it is a huge mistake not to accept that this Islamic "awakening" is a huge, worldwide movement of historic and irreversible proportions and not to positively engage those Islamists who are not exclusively engaged in violence. Putting all these people into one sack is idiotic. DS

From frontline attack to terror by franchise - Financial times
Abstract: In late 2004, a 1,600-page treatise outlining a vision of a new al-Qaeda was posted on jihadi websites. Entitled The Call for a Global Islamic Resistance, it was drafted by Abu Musab al-Suri, a Syrian mechanical engineer who had fought alongside Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan and who has long been considered a leading ideologue for al-Qaeda. Its central theme was that al-Qaeda should be less of an organisation and more of an order, in which a central base would provide primarily ideological guidance to semi-autonomous cells around the world, loosely tied to each other.(...) Whether by coincidence or design, his vision of the post-September 11 al-Qaeda has become a reality. Six years after terrorists struck New York and Washington, al-Qaeda as an organisation has been severely undermined, its haven in Afghanistan destroyed and many of its leaders captured or killed. But the violent fanaticism promoted by al-Qaeda has not only survived, it has proliferated – helped, many experts say, by the conduct of the US-led “war on terror”. The al-Qaeda order indeed appears to be thriving, with new footholds emerging just as old ones are being suppressed. While crackdowns in Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, for example, seem to have reduced the jihadi threat for now, frontlines are expanding in North Africa and Lebanon. Attacks by al-Qaeda-inspired militants have not reached the spectacular scale of September 11 but they have multiplied in numbers and diversified in geographic reach. Arab security officials say self-recruitment, largely through the internet, is replacing the radicalisation that once took place in mosques and religious schools.(...) Iraq has established itself as the most important new frontier. It plays the role of Afghanistan in the 1980s, a magnet for Arab militants looking for jihad, or holy war. The US invasion and continued military presence, meanwhile, have provided a new powerful narrative for recruiting jihadis in the Middle East and in Europe. Even more alarmingly, according to counter-terrorism officials, al-Qaeda in Iraq is aspiring to act as a regional base, sending militants to wage attacks abroad – including against tourist resorts, for example, in India. “Strategically Iraq is the new source of manpower, a platform to operate against the west and a source of high-level expertise from former Iraqi army officers,” says a western official.(...) “Algeria is one example that illustrates that there’s a correlation between home-grown Islamists and those coming back with skills and techniques learned in Iraq. And how does that apply to Europe? Well it’s right on Europe’s back door,” says a senior US military officer. In all this, it hardly matters, many experts say, whether Osama bin Laden is dead or alive. Christopher Heffelfinger, a senior analyst at West Point in the US, says: “I actually think he may be dead. But it’s irrelevant. His ambition was to set up an Islamic awakening. I think he’s done that.” READ IT ALL

Israel: Silicon Valley in South Central LA?

David Seaton's News Links
I'm not a fan of Thomas Friedman, but he was a correspondent in Israel for many years and knows that country intimately. His column in today's NYT is much more like the kind of thing you can read in the Israeli press. This type of frankness about Israel and its society is almost never seen in America.

In the column he gives what I feel are the keys to the dead end situation Israel finds itself in today.

The Oslo "peace process" coincided with birth of the "new economy" (globalization + high tech) and Israel has become one of the leaders in the high technology sector and in the process has become a wealthy country. The idea was that having gotten a peace deal with the Palestinians, Israel would become a combination of Club Med and Silicon Valley, also enjoying a cozy relationship with the Russian Oligarchs and their "creative" financing. Now? Try to imagine Monaco somewhere on the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan and you'll get the idea of far the dream has gone adrift.

Although they are both in California, Silicon Valley cannot be established in South Central Los Angeles. As I have been pointing out the last few weeks, all Israel's newfound wealth is produced by very few people and most of the work they do could be moved out of the country, to another set of computers, in a weekend, without skipping a beat... and if the situation continues to deteriorate, that is exactly what could happen. That would be the end. That explains a lot of things that are happening in the Middle East... and in Washington. DS

Thomas Friedman: Outsource the Cabinet? - New York Times
Abstract: Israel’s police commissioner just resigned after an investigative committee criticized his actions in a 1999 case involving an Israeli crime family. His resignation came in the wake of a rape allegation against Israel’s president, Moshe Katsav, as well accusations of corruption against Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and the suspension of his office director, whose house arrest is part of a widening investigation into the Tax Authority — whose chief also just resigned under a cloud. The finance minister is being questioned about embezzlement at a nonprofit, and the former justice minister has been convicted of indecent behavior for kissing a female soldier against her will. There’s more, but I don’t have space. Here is the really bizarre thing: Israel’s economy — particularly its high-tech sector — has never been better. “The economy is blooming, growing in the last quarter of 2006 by almost 8%,” said Sever Plocker of the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, who is one of Israel’s top economics writers. “Foreign direct investment is flowing in at unprecedented rate — $13.4 billion in 2006. The high-tech sector exports are approaching $18 billion, and the stock exchange is at an all-time high. The shekel is stronger than ever, the inflation nonexistent. Interest rates are lower than in U.S. or Britain, the budget deficit less than 1% of G.D.P., and the balance of payments is positive, which means Israel achieved its economic independence and is actually a net creditor to the rest of the world. “In short, we never had it so good in the economy.” Yossi Vardi, one of the founding fathers of Israel’s high-tech industry, told me that in the last month alone, four start-ups that he was an investor in were sold: one to Cisco, one Microsoft, and two to Israeli companies. “In the last nine months I’ve probably invested in at least nine new companies,” added Mr. Vardi, all started by “kids 25 to 35 years old.” So maybe Israel doesn’t need any cabinet ministers? It’s not so simple. When the cabinet is so weak, no peace deal is likely with the Palestinians because no leader has the strength to push it through — and that is a ticking time bomb. Moreover, high-tech doesn’t employ a lot of people, and if the cabinet that should be looking out for the rest of Israel is hobbled — another bomb is ticking. “Almost half of the population does not enjoy the boom,” Mr. Plocker said, noting these statistics: The unemployment rate is 8.3 percent. Israel’s poverty rate is still the highest in the West, by far: 24.4 percent of the entire population and 35.2 percent of all children are described as poor, living under the official “poverty line.” In the Arab and the ultra-Orthodox Jewish sectors, child poverty is especially high: more than 50 percent. The real income of the poorest quarter of Israelis is lower than six years ago. READ IT ALL(bootleg)

Shalom: The last one out, turn off the computer

A December poll in the newspaper Maariv found that 27% of Israelis would leave or consider leaving if Iran acquired nuclear weapons. Two-thirds of those surveyed said they believed Iran would drop a nuclear weapon on Israel. - Los Angeles Times

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The quote above defines the problem. The chance of Iran ever attacking Israel with atomic weapons are minimal. Israel has submarines at sea with nuclear missiles, so its second strike capability is assured. Persians are a very rational people, (study their carpets) and as Chirac said -- before he was forced to retract -- Tehran would disappear in an Israeli counter-attack. No, the problem is one of nerves. As America and the Soviet Union did during the cold war, Israelis would have to live with possibility of an error or a mad man unleashing Armageddon... in Megiddo. Improbable, but possible. Anyone who lived the 50s and 60s in the USSR or the USA can tell you how it feels.

Since the digital revolution, Israel's economy has gone through a sea-change. Its new prosperity is said to be based on about 20,000 highly qualified, English speaking, engineers. These people are, by definition, completely "portable", they could be out of the country, with new, highly paid jobs and working papers in a few days, if not hours. If that happened the Israeli economy would simply collapse.

If Israel loses its exclusive on atomic weapons then just a periodic rise in tensions between Israel and Iran, without it ever getting to "Cuban Missile Crisis" proportions, would see the women and children of this cyber-elite enplaned for Silicon Valley with hubby soon to follow.

So that is what the fuss is really about. Either Israel completely dominates the Middle East with an unanswerable capacity to terrorize its neighbors or its "best and the brightest" will decamp. DS

Israel sounds alarm on Iran's nuclear efforts - Los Angeles Times
Abstract: Israel's possession of nuclear weapons since the late 1960s, though rarely acknowledged by its leaders, has worked as a deterrent until now. "For decades, the Arab countries … knew they couldn't beat Israel, so there was no coalition forming against us," said Maj. Gen. Amos Gilad, director of the Defense Ministry's Political-Military Bureau. But soon, he said, "the Iranians could create a belief that they can beat us, and under their umbrella create an axis that will destabilize the Middle East." Also, Sunni Arab countries — Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Jordan and Libya — could strive to build atomic weapons to compete with Shiite Iran, making any regional conflict a potential nuclear tinderbox, he said. In such an environment, many Israelis might flee. A December poll in the newspaper Maariv found that 27% of Israelis would leave or consider leaving if Iran acquired nuclear weapons. Two-thirds of those surveyed said they believed Iran would drop a nuclear weapon on Israel. READ IT ALL