Sunday, September 28, 2008

October Surprise

Having been responsible for much of the economic bleeding America has done in Iraq and Afghanistan, al-Qaeda now has a chance to significantly advance its bleed-to-bankruptcy strategy. While al-Qaeda had no hand in creating the ongoing, self-inflicted unraveling of the US financial system, al-Qaeda could accelerate that unraveling with a 9/11-like or larger attack in the continental United States. The US political class has often scoffed at or ridiculed Bin Laden's goal of driving America to bankruptcy, assuming that al-Qaeda irrationally assumed it could bring down the US economy through its actions alone. This analysis is inaccurate. Just as Bin Laden saw al-Qaeda as the inspirer of jihad and not the jihad itself, he saw that his group's attacks on the US economy could not cause bankruptcy, but might do so if they worsened other US economic problems. Thus the main economic damage done by the 9/11 attacks resulted from the Iraq and Afghan wars, not from the raids on Manhattan and Washington. Today, Bin Laden and al-Qaeda have a chance to deal the United States an enormous economic blow if they can stage a near-term attack in America. Such an attack would serve as a devastating force-multiplier and perhaps push the current economic disaster into the category of a financial catastrophe. Whether al-Qaeda is positioned to stage such an attack is an open question. What is unquestionable, however, is its intention to do so; the US intelligence community's conclusion that al-Qaeda poses a "clear and present danger" to the continental United States rests on the fact that US borders remain almost entirely open and the weapons of mass destruction arsenal of the former Soviet states and other sources of nuclear-bomb-making material have yet to be fully secured. Michael Scheuer - Asia Times
David Seaton's News Links
At the risk of repeating myself (actually repeating myself) I'd like to refresh my prediction that Osama bin Laden is going to try to do something in the critical month leading up to the election. Here is what I said way back in February:

Everybody seems to have forgotten Osama bin Laden. I wonder what the old boy is up to?

Getting ready to decide who is to be President of the United States of America, I should imagine.

If you stop and think about it, Osama bin Laden owes the Republicans big. If Gore had won the election in 2000, (ok, I know he did win, but you know what I mean) then, when and if the Twin Towers went down, the United States, accompanied by all of NATO, would have gone through Afghanistan like a dose of fruit salts and bin Laden would have been brewed up in some hole in Tora Bora.

But Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld's ineptitude not only saved the sheik's life: by invading Iraq, by opening Guantanamo, by running Abu Ghraib and by supporting the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, they made Osama bin Laden's case for the entire Muslim world. Who's your daddy?

Does Osama bin Laden want the Republicans to win?

Does Dolly Parton sleep on her back?

Now, even his worst enemies would have to admit that Osama bin Laden is a very focused, scheming, long headed fellow, so it is not difficult to imagine that he is not simply going to trust his fate to the wisdom of the American voters.

The only card the Republicans really have left to play these days is national security. Defense still seems the natural calling of mean, old, white men.

Maybe it's because I live in Madrid and have actually seen it happen that I expect a bomb to define the next US presidential election. In 2004, many observers thought that bin Laden's "October Surprise" video was enough to give Bush a second term. But after "four more years", it will take a bit more than a video to keep the Republicans in the White House. DS


Anonymous said...

Michael Scheuer is a known CIA asset. Even though ben Laden has been dead for years we can be sure that the CIA has something in store to advance US fascism now..

RC said...

I admit I had not given the Osama trumps Obama card a look lately, but you have, David.
I think that any intentions our one time pet, Son of Laden, might have had to undermine the US economy are accomplished, whether by his ability to set the dominoes up properly or by the derivative market's ability to create ever more feverish schemes cheered on by El Maestro, Al G.
I think there is an easy case to be made that Osama may have actually slowed down the crisis from reaching its denouement.
Nevertheless, the plot now thickens, rapidly progresses, the leads will soon be stabbing each other center stage {I think we are at that part already} and the rotund diva will soon be wailing to no avail but pathos.
I have noticed that over the years the average diva has gotten thinner, but nevertheless she will be hitting the high note as she dramatically dies and takes the money game along with her.
And if the October Surprise turns out to be something completely different, like Osama being captured, will that free up the credit markets? Will that unwind the international trade and production and asset value declines? If so, I would be very surprised by that.
And in the same way, McCain or Obama on Nov.4 will not interrupt the tumbling.
I do hold to the analysis that Obama would be the better person to provide aural balm for the nation at the beginning of 2009.
That doesn't cost much and words will be probably all we can afford by then.
Meanwhile, I study that great sage Orlov.

Anonymous said...

Yep, worries me too. I sense the increased US incursions into Pakistan are to try and make a big score right before the elections.

Anonymous said...

I thought it when you originally posted this, but now that you've said it again, I must disagree: Dolly Parton surely sleeps on her side.

Welcome back and belated Happy Birthday... oh and by the way, if you could just let us know when we should start stockpiling food and water, that would be most helpful.


Anonymous said...

Hey, don't make bad Dolly Parton jokes. She is a lovely, funny gutsy lady.

Otherwise, you have interesting points and I, too, have wondered what "surprise" we are going to get that only a former POW would be "qualified" to handle.

via said...

I have always had the niggling fear that the Bush administration ignored the warnings before 9/11 in order to allow the much awaited new 'Pearl Harbor' they felt they needed in order to pursue the goals of the PNAC. I don't think they ever dreamed of the level of devastation, only supposed it might be a hijacking. I worry that they might similarly ignore warnings if they occur before the election, hoping that they will not have to manufacture a false flag attack or similar security crisis in order to facilitate the theft of yet another election.

Before 2000 I would never have dreamed that I would believe something so vile about an American administration, but I would put nothing, simply nothing past these people in their thirst for power and to retain the presidency.

Anonymous said...

Bin Laden=U.S. shadow government.

David Seaton's Newslinks said...

Hi Kelly glad yo are back.
I am a great admirer of Dolly Parton's talent and charming personality, but I have it on good authority that it would be impossible for anyone of her generous anatomical endowments to sleep in any other way than on her back... in much the same way that the Pope wears amusing hats or bears defecate in the forest.