Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Poll axed

Henry Fuseli -The Nightmare
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It will be interesting to see which pollster has called this thing correctly. There is such a huge difference between them. The differences seem to be between those who “weight” their samples using past precedents and those who, putting aside all skepticism, consider that many more young people and black people are going to actually take the trouble to vote than ever have before.

Another factor may be that their are so many pollsters calling so often that people are beginning to hang up on them and that these unpolled are McCain voters.

Another interesting idea is that to win Obama has to be over 50% in the polls because with Obama being black and in the lead the undecideds will all break for McCain. In short, the idea is to look at the polls of the key battleground states and if Obama is not over 50% (no matter what lead he has) than those states may very well go to McCain.

If this is true then McCain is not as inept as he seems.

By falling so far behind he has turned Obama, not Bush, into the “incumbent” and the focus is now on Obama and not Bush.

I expect that now, in the closing days and hours we will be seeing all the nasty material that the Republicans are said to have saved up on Obama.

We have already heard the “socialist” radio tape, now there is now supposed to be a “Palestinian video” which the Los Angeles Times is accused of suppressing, and also some sort of mysterious girlfriend, a certain Vera Baker, who seems to have disappeared from the face of the earth.

If the Reverend Wright is not encased in cement at the bottom of Lake Michigan by now, I wouldn’t be surprised if he turned up, say around Friday

The “low information voters” (LIVs) said to decide all close elections are just tuning into the election now and all they are hearing about is Obama.

At this point rumors about girl friends and wealth redistribution can really catch the attention of the LIVs. All this focus on Obama is a force multiplier for McCain’s meager dollars.

I think tonight’s massive info-ad is also a huge mistake. They are even putting the World Series on hold for it. This is like Obama’s Berlin speech, truly jumping the shark: overkill.

As improbable as it may seem right now it is totally possible that this thing may slip through Obama’s fingers at the last moment. DS


Stephanie said...

I too think that tonight's ad buy may be going too far - a flaunting of the money advantage that may backfire.

However, even if all the undecideds break McCain's way it will still be possible for Obama to win, and it's hard to see how McCain wins the popular vote in any case, not that that matters.

Much depends on whether the undecideds are really undecided, or whether they've made up their minds and just don't want to tell the pollsters.

McCain has made mistakes, but I don't think his campaign has been inept. They did well even to manage a lead for a brief time, given all the Democratic advantages this year. There is an argument that, given Obama's vulnerabilities, he should have done better, but given the financial panic and ongoing bad economic news I think he's done very well to stay within striking distance.

Philip said...

David, do you really believe the will of the people will be reflected in the (official) election results?

David Seaton's Newslinks said...

There doesn't seem to be any other way of determining "the will of the people" except by voting. Do I think the election will be stolen? Not like in Belorusse or Zimbabwe, if that is what you mean, no.

I'm sure, though, that if Obama loses, many people will believe the election was stolen for the rest of their lives.

RC said...

Bush v. Gore. What's the story with that old chestnut?

El Flaco de Tucson said...

If O.were lose, and the exit polls said he won large, this would engender in me lifelong doubt.

montana molly said...

i believe it is customary for the world series to start at 8:30pm EST - which it did.

David Seaton's Newslinks said...

Sorry, I've detested baseball since I was a child so I hadn't followed up on that personally. I have been told that it was the pre-game show that was finally postponed or canceled.

Stephanie said...

It was the pre-game show that was canceled. No matter. Given the relatively low ratings, I suspect that Obama was in the main preaching to the choir and the ad will make little difference either way.