Thursday, November 23, 2006

Gemayel assassination: Cui bono? - Guardian

David Seaton's News Links
Quite a few analysts observe that the clearest beneficiaries of
Gemayel's assassination are the Israelis. This doesn't mean they did it. There are rabid antisemites who blame the Jews for everything from global warming to the fat content in ice cream. However, it is evident that Gemayel's murder does make US rapprochement with Syria and Iran more difficult and that is certainly a major objective of Israeli foreign policy. There is now a dynamic for a great, global, Middle Eastern peace settlement that would not be totally controlled by the United States: derailing that could be an important goal for many players. DS
Abstract: The assassination of a member of a prominent Maronite family, coupled with media attacks on Syria and opposition groups, is expected to weaken the Aoun-Hizbullah alliance, potentially swaying Christian Maronites from the opposition. In the post-assassination climate, the March 14 alliance has already extended the life and boosted the confidence of the government. The opposition forces realise that their plans are now on hold, and they could end up accepting a negotiated solution that would have been unthinkable a few days ago. Alternatively, they may decide to sit back and ride the backwash of the assassination, waiting to regain the initiative when emotions have cooled down. No matter who was behind the assassination of Gemayel, it is the Lebanese opposition and Syria's allies that have been hardest hit politically by this gruesome act. READ IT ALL

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