Thursday, April 05, 2007

Hearing the message from Tehran

In dealing with Iran, support for possible military action is in the single digits (8 percent).
Public Agenda's Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index, conducted in association with Foreign Affairs Magazine
David Seaton's News Links
Depending on what they want to see, commentators are speculating on the possible meaning of the resolution of the captive British sailor crisis. Complex theories about conflict among the "hardliners" and "moderates" in Tehran abound.

People are reading the tea leaves on this too closely, I believe. It is all really very simple. What you see is what you get.

Iran has proved several things. They have proved that they could do something militarily and politically significant anytime they wanted to, they proved they could do it for as long as they wanted to and they could stop doing it at the moment of their choosing. With this simple expedient Iran dominated the world headlines and television news day after day.
Plainly put, Iran changed the subject of the conversation. The question stopped being, "what will be done to Iran?" and became, "what will Iran do?". And all this was done very cheaply, if you compare it with passing UN resolutions (and enforcing them) and maintaining a huge naval force in the area. And of course:
"There's been a $5 or $6 premium that's been built into the price of oil over this," said Phil Flynn, vice president and energy analyst at Alaron Trading. "Even though this crisis has ended, the oil market is still on guard that the tensions in the Middle East are going to continue." ABC - NEWS
Another thing Iran did was to test the reaction of Western public opinion to possible armed conflict with Iran... It was extremely tepid. As we can see from the poll quoted at the top less than 10% of the American public is behind military action. Among the allies 0.0%. The only people still hot to trot are some right wing Israelis... who knows, that might be enough to get a war started, but not to finish it.

And as we can see we can see from the "Condi and Nancy Show", American diplomacy in the Middle East, like the US Army is a broken toy. Iran is playing with the disintegration of America's position in the Middle East. "Hard" is really not the same as "complicated". DS


Anonymous said...

How dare you lump Nancy and Condi together?

Read the Professor's post (Juan Cole's musings) about the Pelosi trip.

He was unaware that, besides endorsing the trip, Tom Lantos, a bastion of "support for Israel" is ON the trip.

As is my own Congresswoman, Louise Slaughter, who has always strongly supported Israel...and also co-sponsored the doomed resolution that called for an immediate cease-fire about a day into the Lebanon War...

As far as the message from Tehran...

What a shame that that fine country, that ancient civilization, is currently ruled by a parcel of rogues.

Or several parcels.

Some in clerical garb...I saw on the MSM a snippit about a tailor in Qom...those plain black grey white outfits cost $800 US!

The tailor was glad he was making so much money...wife, kids, the whole catastrophe...

But, as an honest Muslim, wondered
if expensive outfits for clerics was what the revolution was all about???

Or Islam?

David Seaton's Newslinks said...

The problem with the "Condi and Nancy Show" is that the bipartisan tradition of US foreign policy is being abandoned publicly while losing a war. The image is perfectly absurd. This absurd image will have knock on effects in places that will surprise us all.
As to Iran, I can think of nothing better to read on the situation from than this
piece from Noam Chomsky